How Liberian Opposition Parties May Incur Unfavorable Elections Results by Self-Inflection
Elections Rigging Speculations and Reactions
The Liberian opposition party, Unity Party (UP), has expressed concerns on the potential for electoral manipulation by the current ruling government, led by the CDC, in the impending October 10, 2023 elections.
The allegations of election rigging have caused concern among supporters of the UP party and their sympathizers, leading to a pervasive sense of worriedness regarding the potential lack of fairness in the upcoming elections.
Recently, Unity Party Standard Bearer, Ambassador Joseph N. Boakai also echoed this concern doing the September 17,2023 formal launch of UP campaign. Boakai emphatically maintained that he will resist any sinister attempts and plans of elections rigging.
Boakai: “Primarily, I would like to unequivocally emphasize and guarantee that any strategies or endeavors aimed at obstructing the electoral preferences of the Liberian populace through fraudulent means will be met with resolute opposition from both the citizens of Liberia and the international community, which has made substantial investments in the preservation of peace and stability within this nation.”
Boakai further expressed his unwavering commitment to collaborate with foreign prosecutors to uncover and apprehend individuals who promote election violence and undermine the calm that has been achieved through significant efforts.
Also, Senator Prince Y. Johnson of Nimba County in a live Facebook earlier this week following the formal launch of UP campaign, claimed that the turnout at the Unity Party Alliance campaign launch on September 17 was a clear indication that Liberians want a change of government.
Prince Johnson: “First and foremost, let me make it abundantly clear and assure you that any plans or attempts to thwart the will of the Liberian people by stealing these elections will be forcefully resisted by us, the people of Liberia, and the international community, which has invested so much in the peace and stability of this country.”
Johnson further: “Before the October elections, Liberians are rallying under the banner ‘Don’t Try It.’ If, anyone attempts to subvert the will of the people, the citizens’ power will be exercised, reminiscent of the Arab Spring. Whether you shoot your gun, take lives, or meet your demise, there will be no more fear; Liberians will not be afraid anymore.”
Condemnations and Reactions
Johnson statement did not go down well to the Liberian government. Joint security of Liberia issued a release yesterday and termed Johnson remarks as a threat to national security, warning that Liberia “is a country of law and, as such, aggrieved parties must continue to seek legal remedies, to issues instead of resorting to violence.
The Press Union of Liberia (PUL)also condemned PYJ remarks. According to PUL, while nobody desires election rigging, “threatening the peace and stability of the country is entirely unacceptable.”
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has communicated their concerns through a press statement issued on September 22, 2023.The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) expresses its deep concern with the recent emergence of inflammatory rhetoric employed by certain political leaders and activists, which has the potential to instigate violent sentiments, disrupt social order, and undermine the peace and stability of Liberia.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) expresses its strong disapproval of these provocative utterances, which have the potential to incite violent conflicts. Furthermore, ECOWAS emphasizes that the principles outlined in the Farmington River Declaration are still applicable and crucial for all political participants to adhere to protect the integrity of the democratic process.
Unity Party campaign spokesman, Mohammed Ali did no see Johnson ‘s utterance as a threat once the election is not rigged. Ali seemed conditionally supportive of PJY’s assertion and rhetorically proffered:
“Are there expectations that elections will be rigged? Because the man said if elections are rigged. If the elections are not rigged, then there will be no need for trouble.”
While the leading opposition Unity Party fear that Election may be rigged, the Secretary General of the ruling CDC Party, Jefferson Koijee “sent shockwaves throughout the country, leaving many Liberian apprehensive about the potential implications” of his reported remarks. Global News Network (GNN) writes in its September 7,2023 edition with the caption “Has Jefferson Koijee heard the News from the US embassy?”
GNN writes: “Speaking at party rally in Monrovia, Koijee confidently declared, “The CDC will win the upcoming elections on first -round balloting. This is a matter of life and death. According to GNN, Koijee remarks aimed at rallying support for the ruling party, sent shockwaves throughout the country, leaving many Liberian apprehensive about the potential implications of such story. Did the Press Union and civil society organizations release a statement in opposition to Koijee following his strong statement? I hope that the PUL also implements measures to ensure transparent and unbiased gatekeeping.
Liberia traditional ally, the United States Government provided solace and warning that it is prepared to assist in efforts to keep these elections free, fair and peaceful by holding accountable anyone responsible for engaging in activities to undermine the democratic election process in Liberia through additional measures such as sanctions.
According to Catherine Rodriguez, the Charge d’Affaires of the U.S. Embassy, “The eyes of the world are focused on these elections and how they are managed. The United States, as a longstanding partner of Liberia, along with the international community, has been working closely with the NEC to make sure that all election observers have full access to polling stations during election day, as well as access to the vote tallying.”
Implications of Crying foul
According to a political expert who has been following Liberian elections for decades, opposition political parties’ officials crying continuously nearly every day, while less focusing and less directing resources to foremost priorities that can effectively safeguard and prevent worst fear of a rigged election, is a self-inflected political felo-de-se.
The Political Expert agreed though that the election rigging alarm demonstrates to the incumbent that any clandestine scheme it chooses to implement in order to manipulate the election outcomes is already known by opposition parties. Consequently, the incumbent may choose to cease or modify its plan, but it is being closely monitored by the opposition and is likely to be apprehensive.
Nevertheless, the Expert cautioned that voters may exhibit a sense of paranoia, leading them to abstain from participating in the electoral process due to the prevailing belief that elections might be manipulated, so rendering their vote inconsequential.
Opposition Preventive Measures -are there any?
In light of the prevalent concerns and implications regarding potential electoral fraud, it is pertinent to inquire whether opposition parties, particularly the leading Unity Party (UP), has implemented robust precautionary measures to mitigate or eliminate the susceptibility of their party to manipulation during elections. Have all the potholes and vulnerabilities been repaired?
The adage “prevention is better than cure” emphasizes the importance of taking proactive measures to avoid negative outcomes rather than relying on reactive solutions once a problem has occurred. According to a previous National Election Commissioner, rural Liberia has been identified as a significant area where consecutive incumbent parties tend to exploit vulnerabilities to engage in electoral malpractices.
Reason? Opposition political parties barely send pool watchers to pulling places in rural Liberia. Poll watchers at those places are mostly representatives of the ruling incumbent party.
Local and foreign observers hardly deploy to those very far away polling places. Bluntly, the ruling CDC party will not do for opposition parties what they can’t do for themselves. If opposition parties would wait for the government and government appointed NEC Commissioners to tell them accurately how many oppositions votes casted in those far remote polling places, they are depending on broken sticks.
According to NEC, there are 5,890 polling places ,2080 precincts and 2,471,617 registered voters. All voters go to a single polling place to cast their ballots and those polling places are in an electoral district- precincts.
According to a credible source within the Unity Party who asked for anonymity because he is not clothed with the authority to speak on this matter, the party is financially starving and would be able to dispatch only 4000 poll watchers out of the 5,890 polling places.1890 polling places without poll watchers from Unity Party. This is a crucial big difference isn’t. A kick in the legs by UP itself? No, a big kick in the d… and a…
However, even in the scenario where the Unity Party were to allocate all 5890 of their poll watchers to each of the 5890 voting locations, a prominent political scientist argues that this strategy does not provide a substantial competitive advantage.
To guarantee the protection and security of the UP or the entirety of the opposition votes, the political scientist suggests deploying a total of 17,670 poll watchers, with three assigned to each polling location. If a single poll observer was to temporarily vacate their post to attend to personal needs, it would result in a situation where the two remaining poll watchers would be responsible for overseeing the voting process. It is advisable that a maximum of two or three individuals refrain from simultaneously departing for the restroom, the political scientist advised.
Safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process is of paramount importance in the realm of political campaigns. The political scientist advised the entire opposition to collaborate collectively to ensure the credibility of the election results.
Final Registration Role (FRR). 18 days left until the October 10 Elections, but the final voters roll has not been published. This breaches a crucial NEC regulation that calls for FRR publication 30 days before elections. NEC is 12 days behind schedule for not publishing the FRR.
What is fundamentally important about the FRR? It protects against unlikely fraud by ensuring only eligible voters can vote. It enables authorities to verify an applicant’s identity and entitlement to vote and to ensure a person does not vote multiple times.
According to Section 16.1 of the 2023 Voter Regulations, “NEC may take necessary measures to clean/correct any inaccuracies discovered on the voter roll.” Has NEC completed this task? FRR has not been published yet. The public, therefore, cannot verify if this task is completed or not.
16.2 of the Voter regulations states, “When the name of the same voter appears on the Registration Roll more than once, NEC may order the removal of multiples entries to leave one.” Has NEC completed this task? FRR has not been published yet. The public, therefore, cannot verify if this task is completed or not.
According to Section 16.7 of the 2023 Voter Regulations, the final voters’ role cannot be altered by the National Election Commission within 30 days prior to an election, except when the Supreme Court orders.” NEC is 12 days behind schedule. No FRR publication yet.
Opposition parties should vigorously contest this matter with utmost determination. No babying and pampering. In addition to engaging in verbal discourse through radio communication and disseminating official statements, it is proposed that a physical and nonviolent gathering be organized at the NEC offices, persisting continuously for a duration of 24 hours a day, spanning both daylight and nighttime. This assembly must commence promptly since there is already 12 days delay in the publication of the Final Registration Roll (FRR).
Conclusion
Opposition parties’ members can dance to whatever music with whatever styles, moves and fashions and rally thousands of supporters, but if opposition parties fail to allocate a minimum of two poll watchers at each polling place, or ideally three, and FFR remains taboo and unpublished, opposition parties will persist for another 6 years in their struggle to secure electoral victories.
