On Feb. 28, Guinea’s interim president, Gen. Mamady Doumbouya, appointed Ahmadou Oury Bah as the country’s prime minister. An economist and seasoned politician, Bah is the third person to hold the position since the coup led by Doumbouya that ousted former President Alpha Conde in September 2021. His appointment came nine days after the surprise dissolution of the previous government and the announcement of a series of measures targeting the outgoing ministers, including a travel ban and freezing of their assets.
Prior to his appointment, Bah served as the leader of the Union of Democrats for the Renaissance of Guinea, or UDRG, a coalition encompassing various political parties. His selection represents a strategic move by Doumbouya, who is counting on Bah’s proven ability to unify divergent political factions. He already put that to good use in the composition of the new government. Following prolonged negotiations, Bah assembled a Cabinet of 25 ministers, including 7 women, largely consisting of inexperienced youthful politicians. Though predominantly a civilian government, retired generals Aboubakar Sidiki Kamara and Bachir Diallo assumed the role of defense minister and minister of national security and civil protection, respectively. Notably, however, the department responsible for overseeing elections and territorial administration will be overseen by Mori Conde, a human rights activist.
The newly appointed government also includes several figures who vocally opposed Conde’s controversial third-term bid in 2020. These include Ousmane Gawal Diallo, closely aligned with opposition figure Cellou Dalein Diallo, who takes charge of urban planning and housing, and Alpha Souma, a leading figure in the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution, who leads the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. This casting represents a significant step toward inclusivity in the new government, the lack of which had caused dissatisfaction among Guinea’s political class over the past two years.
By incorporating figures from diverse political backgrounds, Doumbouya is clearly seeking to address the mounting disillusionment toward his military-led transitional government, at a time when Guinea’s transition back to an elected government seems to most activists and the political opposition to have stalled. In October 2022, the Guinean transitional government and the regional bloc ECOWAS agreed on a 24-month timeline beginning in January 2023, giving the junta until December 2024 to organize elections and hand over power to a civilian and democratically elected government.
But maintaining this transition timeline relies heavily on external financial and technical support from Guinea’s international partners, including ECOWAS. And so far there has been a lack of clarity and coherence regarding the actions required to swiftly restore constitutional order.
The transition period has also been marked by challenges, particularly regarding political inclusivity and public support. Despite the transitional government’s efforts to initiate inclusive dialogue, implement institutional reforms, combat corruption and roll out development projects, Doumbouya has encountered difficulty in rallying Guineans behind his administration. This lack of broad-based support stems from various factors, including perceptions of exclusion from decision-making processes; lingering distrust toward military-led governance; and deepening socioeconomic hardship, poverty and unemployment, especially among the youth. It also suggests underlying dissatisfaction and even skepticism regarding the transitional government’s effectiveness, but also its legitimacy.
Over the past year or so, civic and media spaces have been gradually restricted, with several journalists arrested during a protest organized by the Press Professionals’ union in January. Media activists and other concerned citizens have denounced an escalation of restrictions on demonstrations, repression of the political opposition, increased controls on the media, arbitrary arrests of journalists and blockages of internet access, one of which lasted for three months. The dissolution of the government in February should be seen against the backdrop of this growing discontent with the military regime.
Doumbouya has failed to truly win over his fellow citizens who, after initially welcoming his coup d’état, have become increasingly disillusioned.
The government reshuffle also follows reports of several attempted coups against Doumbouya. In January, the alleged plotters behind one of them, including military officials and civilians, were even presented confessing on national television, though it is unclear how the government obtained and filmed their confessions. These reports contributed to making the political climate more tense—and the military government more suspicious of any dissenting voices.
A devastating fire at a fuel depot in December added to the transitional government’s challenges. The fire left 24 dead and resulted in extensive material damage, directly affecting over 2,000 households and damaging 800 buildings. It also led to a fuel shortage that exacerbated already high social tensions.
Media reports suggest that for months, Doumbouya had been expressing dissatisfaction with the outgoing government, citing its lack of efficiency, inadequate follow-up on ongoing projects and a sense of distrust among ministers and their direct collaborators. In addition to that, it was no longer a secret that disagreements between former Prime Minister Bernard Goumou and some of his Cabinet members were undermining cohesion.
But the new government will have a very short honeymoon period, if it has one at all. On Feb. 26, two days before Bah announced his Cabinet, labor unions called a general strike to protest the high cost of living and increasing inflation, a mobilization that paralyzed the country. In addition to citizens voicing their opposition to the restricted civic and media spaces, many Guineans joined the general strike to denounce the absence of any perspective for a better future with the military regime.
It’s not fair to say that Doumbouya’s administration has nothing to show for its two and a half years in power. It established a court to address economic and financial offenses, leading to the preventive detention of many of Conde’s associates for corruption and embezzlement. It also facilitated the commencement of the trial for the perpetrators of the Conakry Stadium massacre of Sept. 28, 2009, classified as a crime against humanity by the United Nations. And it initiated national consultations and launched the construction of tangible infrastructural developments.
But in that time, Doumbouya has failed to truly win over his fellow citizens who, after initially welcoming his coup d’état as a relief from the poverty, corruption and repression they knew under Conde, have become increasingly disillusioned. Doumbouya’s moves upon assuming power—including the release of political prisoners, the initiation of school and road construction projects, and particularly the anti-corruption efforts—initially gave Guineans some hope. But this optimism has since given way to despair, a further reflection of how the transitional government under Doumbouya’s leadership has struggled to effectively convince Guineans to subscribe to its political project.
The Achilles’ heel of the Guinean transition lies in the lack of inclusion of all the diverse political currents within the country. The paradox is that the opposition parties excluded from the transitional government have continued to voice their opposition, while those included contributed to internal disharmony within the executive.
Fostering genuine inclusivity and ensuring representation from across the political spectrum is critical for the success and sustainability of Guinea’s transition toward a democratic governance framework. Judging from the newly announced government, the military seems to have understood that. Nevertheless, the transition’s legitimacy and effectiveness must go hand in hand. Even if more people trust the transitional government, the risk of social unrest will remain high if it is unable to address the nation’s pressing challenges and organize democratic, fair and transparent elections in a timely fashion.
Source:MSN
