African citizens are becoming increasingly frustrated by the poor quality of democratic governance they receive, and evermore willing to consider authoritarian alternatives.
That is the stark warning of the first-ever flagship report from the Afrobarometer, the African survey organisation based in Accra, Ghana.
Based on nationally representative surveys in 39 countries, “Democracy at risk – the people’s perspective” provides key insights into public attitudes on a range of political issues, from the extent of corruption to military interventions and the hopes and dreams of Africa’s youth.
The report makes for sobering reading, recording an 8% drop in support for democracy as the best system of government, and an 11% drop in satisfaction with the way democracy is currently working.
As ever, there is considerable variation across the continent, and one of the most striking conclusions that emerges from the data is that the most important factor shaping citizen support for democracy is not the state of the economy, but the political performance of the government. This means one way to spot the next potential political crisis is to look at the countries in which citizens are the most frustrated with issues such as political mismanagement, rising corruption and electoral manipulation.
Adopting this lens puts the continent in a dramatic new light and suggests that in addition to countries with well-known problems such as Nigeria and Togo, we should be concerned about ailing democracies like Botswana, Mauritius and South Africa.
It’s the politics
Explanations of the popularity of leaders and systems of government often start and end with the state of the economy. On this account, economic good times mean high approval ratings for the party in power, and general contentment with the prevailing political system, while economic downturn means trouble. In the words of James Carville, the election strategist for Bill Clinton in the 1992 US presidential election campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
One of the most striking findings of the Afrobarometer report is that it shows this often repeated line is misleading when it comes to popular support for democracy. While public pessimism about the economy and the government’s handling of it is never good news for political stability, the report concludes that “Where we see declines in support for democracy, they are most closely linked to adverse changes in political performance”.
The kinds of political performance that matter most are whether governments hold good quality elections, tackle corruption, and respect the rule of law. When citizens believe that elections are routinely manipulated, they both lose respect for the government and lose faith in elections as a viable way to achieve political change.
In Uganda, for example, surveys have revealed that many citizens don’t believe President Yoweri Museveni can be removed via the ballot box.
Corrupt and rule-breaking leaders also undermine popular confidence in democracy, and it is easy to see why. One reason democracy is valued is because it is supposed to promote accountable and responsive government. If political leaders continually break the rules, and can’t be removed through elections, the public is likely to lose faith not only in the ruling party but also in the system of government that keeps them in power.
The flame of democracy may be dimmed, but it is still burning.
This helps to explain popular support for many of the coups that sent shockwaves across the continent in the last five years. Although the vast majority of Africans reject army rule, a majority now say they would tolerate military intervention “when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends”.
In other words, one of the most effective ways that African leaders can insulate their government against coups is to play by democratic rules themselves.
The warning signs
The potential for political failings to facilitate democratic crises means that it is particularly important to pay close attention to countries where corruption is rising and citizen satisfaction with democracy is falling. The largest declines recorded in satisfaction with democracy over the last decade have been in Botswana (-40%), Mauritius (-40%), and South Africa (-35%).
This list will surprise many people. Botswana, Mauritius and South Africa are three African countries typically seen to be the most stable democracies on the continent. Yet, all three have experienced a combination of economic difficulties and high-profile political controversies over the last 10 years. The credibility of the long-time ruling party in Botswana has been damaged by the acrimonious fallout between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor, Ian Khama. Meanwhile, the popularity of the African National Congress has collapsed following years of mismanagement and state capture.
Democracy has also been hollowed out in Mauritius, where political interference in everyday life has become so pervasive that journalists and researchers feel they have to self-censor because criticism of the government could undermine their prospects of getting promoted. Tellingly, in the latest round of the Afrobarometer, only 57% of citizens said that they feel they can “vote without pressure”, which is below the African average and less than Mauritania.
There is also a consensus among citizens in all three countries that corruption has increased, with 82% of South Africans, 71% of Batswana and 72% of Mauritians holding this view. These political failings do not mean that democracy is in immediate peril, but they have weakened popular resolve against authoritarian alternatives. Over the last decade, the share of citizens rejecting military rule has fallen by 8% in Botswana, 14% in Mauritius, and 15% in South Africa.
There is also no room for complacency in several other countries that were historically thought of as shining examples of democracy in Africa. Similar trends of high corruption and political mismanagement mean that satisfaction with democracy is down 23% in Ghana, 12% in Namibia, 15% in Benin and 20% in Senegal – although the picture in Senegal may have changed following the transfer of power in the recent general elections.
Further evidence of democratic resilience
It is not all doom and gloom, however. Trends over the last decade also provide an important reminder about what makes democracy in Africa so remarkable. Despite challenging economic headwinds and failing governments, two-thirds of Africans continue to say that democracy is preferable to any other system of government.
This support is robust across all income groups – including the very poor – in both towns and villages and higher than in many other regions in the world. On average, support for democracy is 11% lower in 15 countries surveyed in Asia and 14% lower across 11
It is this deep-rooted desire for democracy that has prevented a more pronounced slide towards authoritarianism, and will make it extremely difficult for junta leaders to remain in power indefinitely. While a majority of citizens are willing to tolerate military intervention, most people who do so oppose the continuation of army rule.
Instead, they are willing to back coups in the hope that they will pave the way for more genuinely representative and accountable political systems.
The flame of democracy may be dimmed, but it is still burning.
